🔗 Share this article

Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.