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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the biggest upset.

But the latest field is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners declining and longtime strugglers rising collectively. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling year, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

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